国际原油价格冲击对我国经济影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on China's Economy

本文以VAR计量模型为基础,采用线性方法和非线性方法,通过运用脉冲响应分析及方差分解,计算各经济变量对石油价格冲击的弹性来讨论油价冲击对我国经济的影响。同时引入模型中的还有GDP增长率、财政支出、以M2口径度量的货币供应量、居民消费价格指数和一年期存款利率等因素。最终发现油价冲击对我国经济造成的影响是非对称的,油价上升会滞后性地阻碍经济增长,而油价下降只是在短期对经济有正面的刺激作用。

This paper use linear model and non-linear model to describe oil price shocks, than import it into VAr model, use impulse response function ,variance decomposition and elasticity analysis to learn the impacts of oil price shocks. Also we import other factor like the growth of GDP, fiscal expendture, the supply of M2, the CPI index and the deposit rate of one year into VAR model. At last, we find the Impacts of oil price shocks on economy are asymmetric. The rise of oil price has lagged disadvantages on economy. But the decline of price only has good stimulations in short-term.