中国房地产市场结构和价格影响因素的实证分析

An Analysis of Real Estate Market Structure and Price

本文在一个简单的局部均衡模型基础上,利用1999～2003年全国31个省市的房地产市场的面板数据分析了中国房地产市场结构和价格问题.实证结果表明:开发商在房价上涨的时候可能过多的投资于别墅和高档房,这有可能带来风险;住宅市场上可能存在较大的投机性购房行为,这有可能形成房地产泡沫;经济适用房的供给不足使普通居民利益受损.因此对房地产市场的调控重点应该调整开发商投资方向,减少别墅高档房的投资,增加低档房和经济适用房的投资,采取有效措施限制普通商品住宅市场上的投机行为.

This paper analysis china＇s real estate market structure problems with the panel data from 1999 to 2003 basing on a partial equilibrium model. The results suggest there are three problems which lie in the real estate market structure. The first is that the real estate developer may invest too much on villas and luxury apartments at the time of housing price rising, and this would result in risks. The second is that there lies some speculations of buying housing in the housing markets which may form bubbles of housing markets. The third problem is that the lack of economic housing supply would hurt housing buyer＇s benefits. So the adjustments of real estate markets should focus on the real estate investments. That is to decrease the investments on villas and luxury apartments and to increase the investments on economic housing, and the government should adopt some measures to restrict the speculations in the housing markets.