论我国外资经济的贫困化增长

An Analysis of the Immiserizing Growth in China's FDI

本文在对外资经济贫困化增长理论和描述性模型进行分析的基础上,对中国外资经济发展现状进行了综合判断。低技术含量、劳动密集型、出口导向的外资经济,已经出现国民所得下降的贫困化增长;资本、技术密集型外资经济虽未出现贫困化增长,但存在外资控制技术、垄断市场的趋势。前者面临的是如何跃出“比较优势陷阱”的问题,主要存在于珠三角地区;后者面临的是如何防范“拉美化陷阱”的问题,主要存在于长三角地区。提高外资经济中的国民所得,实现外资经济增长转型,应选择诱致性转型路径。

Recently there are many disputations about the welfare and economic growth effects of China＇s FDI. Based on the model of immizerizing growth, this paper presents a comprehensive estimation： immizerizing growth has already appeared in low-tech, labor-intensive and export-oriented FDI. Though the immiserizing growth has not yet occurred in capital-tech intensive FDI, the risks that MNCs control the tech spill-over and monopolize civil market have existed. The first question then is how to get out from “the trap of comparative advantage”, which mainly occurs in Zhujiang Triangle ; the second question is how to prevent “the trap of Latin-America”, which mainly occurs in Yangtze Triangle. To avoid the immiserizing growth and enlarge the gains from FDI, inductive transformation path is the premium selection.