中国与荷兰洪水风险分析方法的比较研究

Comparative study on flood risk analysis in Netherlands and China

基于洪水风险的定义,从洪灾发生概率、洪灾后果评估、风险评价指标和防洪标准经济优化决策原则等方面阐述了中荷两国在洪水风险分析研究方面的异同,初步分析了存在差别的原因以及两种方法的特点。在分别应用中国和荷兰现有风险评估方法分析安庆市堤防圈的洪水风险的基础上,探讨了将两国的风险分析方法进行整合的思路。算例表明,将堤防的工程风险与洪水本身出现的水文风险相结合,并考虑在不同洪水位下损失的差异的方法是与洪灾发生机理相符,综合考虑了各种不确定因素的、切合我国洪灾特点的一种值得进一步深入研究的新方法。

Based on a general definition of flood risk, similarities and differences in the flood risk analysis method between the Netherlands and China are described in this paper. Studied aspects include the determination of flooding probability, flood consequences, flood risk indexes and flood prevention economy optimization. Features of each method and causes of the differences between two countries are primarily analyzed. In the case study of the Anqing dike, the flood risk analysis methods in the Netherlands and China are investigated respectively, and a combination of these two methods is proposed. The result indicates that the method combining structural failure probability of dike and hydrological risk probability of flood together to determine the flood hazard agrees well with Chinese flood conditions. More uncertainties are considered in determination of flood risk in this new method. It is suggested to apply this method to the further flood risk analysis in China.