南半球气候变暖对西北太平洋热带气旋的影响

Influence of climatic warming in Southern Hemisphere on tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean

在分析南半球地面气温序列和西北太平洋热带气旋序列的基础上,讨论了南半球气候变暖对西北太平洋上热带气旋的影响和可能的机制。结果表明,随着南半球气候变暖,西北太平洋上热带气旋的频数减少,强度减弱;同时,随着南半球气候变暖,西北太平洋上强台风的频数将减少,最大中心风速将减弱。一种可能的机制是由于从南半球侵入西北太平洋的冷空气随着南半球气候的变暖而减弱。

Based on analysis of the earth＇s surface temperature in Southern Hemisphere and the tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, the relationships between climatic warming and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone are investigated. The result shows that with the climatic warming in Southern Hemisphere, the frequency of tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific Ocean decreases and simultaneously the intensity of the cyclone reduces ; the frequency and the maximum central wind speed of strong typhoon in the ocean also decrease. The possible mechanism of the phenomenon is that the cold air from the Southern Hemisphere weakens with the climatic warming in Southern Hemisphere.