烤烟赤星病发生与气象因子的关系及预测模式建立

Relationship between Occurrence of Alternaria alternat (Fries) Keissler and Meteorological Factors and Its Forecast Model

烟叶赤星病是赣中烟叶栽培区的主要病害之一,一般在烟叶成熟期即6月上旬始发,随着降雨的增加病情逐渐加重。根据田间病情系统调查与当地气象因子相关分析,建立预测式:■=12.4145+0.9441x,(y为病情指数,x为温雨系数),r=0.9728,方差分析相关显著,卡方检验符合率高。

Alternaria alternat （Fries） Keissler is one of the major diseases ot tobacco m the middle Jiangxi province. The disease usually begins to occur in the ripening stage of tobacco in the first ten days of June, and gradually occurs heavily along with increase of rainfall. The occurrence and prevalence of this disease is closely related to temperature, rainfall and humidity. The forecast model, y↑-=12.4145 ＋ 0.9441x, （y is index of the diseease, x is index of temperature and rainfall） was established based on field occurrence of the disease in 1993-2003, r=0.9728, X^2=1.3841〈 X=16.919. The model to predict the dynamic state ofAlternaria alternat （Fries） Keissler was evaluated in the region of tobacco cultivation.