河川径流序列协整预测研究

A Study on the Cointegration Forecast of Runoff

针对河川径流序列的非平稳性,将协整理论引入河川径流分析中,以建立可靠的数学模型.以黄河为例,通过单位根检验,协整检验,建立了上下游之间的误差校正模型,用于描述流域上下游径流间的协整关系,并初步建立协整预测模型,结果表明,预测模型是可行的.

A view of the nonstationary nature of runoff series, the cointegration theory is introduced into the analysis of runoff to establish reliable mathematical model. Taking the Yellow River as an example, through unit root testing and cointegration testing, the error correction model which can describe the cointegration relationship between the runoff of the upper and lower reaches is set up. In this way the initial cointegration forecasting model is set up. The results show that the forecasting model is feasible.