解析LNG运输市场

An analysis of LNG market

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Phenomenal fading of the LNG short-term market appears. At the heart of this problem, which has plagued the industry since the beginning of this year, is the slow pace and delays to new LNG production coming on-stream. Series of disruptions and delays have incurred across various production fields. Meanwhile, production from its train-4 will be delayed. This delay in planned increases in LNG production has not only created a mismatch between cargo supply and ship delivery, which led to a restrained shipping market, but also a shortage of spare cargo capacity. This has restricted the pool for LNG short-term trades. We have observed an increasing proportion of trade carried on short-term contracts over recent years. Due to longer shipping distances, spot markets have not emerged to the same degree in the Pacific Basin. However, the tremendously revived LNG demand growth in the US has enabled the market to absorb any excess production in the form of short-term trades. To forge a view on the future LNG short-term trades, we firstly need to understand what creates short-term trading opportunities. One of the main factors historically prohibiting short term trades was destination clauses in SPAs.This meant even if plants could produce LNG above nameplate capacity or by debottlenecking it was not possible to ship the cargo.The main constraint to date on an LNG spot market developing has been a lack of LNG transport capacity. Although there are more LNG ships being ordered today, the high cost of LNG vessels and limited number of yards with LNG shipbuilding experience has prevented the over building in this sector, which distinctly segregated the LNG fleet from other shipping markets with a commoditized trading pattern. With gas-on-gas pricing system emerging in Europe, and the proximity of the US and European markets, we expect to see increased arbitrage and the eventual convergence of prices between the two markets.