我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究(Ⅰ):主要研究成果

EVOLUTION OF LIFE-SUPPORTING ENVIRONMENT IN OUR NATION AND THE PREDICTIVE STUDY OF ARIDIFICATION IN NORTHERN CHINA(Ⅰ): MAIN SCIENTIFIC ISSUES AND ACHIEVEMENTS

北方干旱化是我国最为严重的生存环境问题之一。20世纪90年代以来,与干旱化相联系的灾害造成的直接经济损失每年都在1 000亿元以上。它已经成为东北商品粮基地发展和华北能源基地建设以及实施“西部大开发”和振兴东北老工业基地战略的一个主要障碍。国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究”(G1999043400)以全球变化科学的理论为指导,实施对水、土、气、生组成的生存环境系统的综合集成研究,从季风环境系统的整体变异的角度揭示干旱化形成的机理,并为干旱化发展趋势的预测、影响评估和对策建议提供科学依据。项目实施5年来,在完成国家目标需求和重大基础科学研究两个方面取得了显著成果;主要介绍了该项目的主要研究内容及代表性成果。

Aridification in northern China is one of the most serious life-supporting environmental challenges. Annual economic losses caused directly by aridity-related disasters have been more than 10 billion RMB since the beginning of 1990s, which greatly restricts the application of development strategies of national economy. Under the guidance of Global Change Science, a National Key Basic Research Science Foundation （973 project） ＂Evolution of Life-supporting Environment in Our Nation and the Predictive Study of Aridification in Northern China＂ has carried out integrated studies on the living environment consisted of various components, such as water, soil, air, and life, etc. Aimed to put forward scientific bases for the evolution prediction, impact assessments and adaptation measures of aridification, the project revealed the mechanisms of the formation of aridification from the viewpoint of the comprehensive changes in monsoon environmental system. Notable results have been achieved since the application of the project over the past 5 years both in the fields of social demand meeting and scientific creativities. The main scientific issues and achievements of this project are introduced in this paper.