中国经济增长趋势与人均国内生产总值、收入以及消费之间关系的研究:1978~2002

Research on the Trend of China's Economic Growth and the Relationship Between GDP,Income and Living Expenditure:1978～2002

自1978年改革开放以来,中国人均国内生产总值连续高速增长。研究表明:截至2002年,25年来中国人均国内生产总值的增长不是均衡的,而是分阶段的。文章基于对25年来中国人均国内生产总值、人均收入以及人均消费的关系的研究,提出一个更为合适的分段模型———线性误差模型。同时,给出该模型中参数的估计方法。

China＇ s per capita GDP has increased at a rapid speed since 1978. Up to 2002, researches indicate that the increase of China＇ s per capita GDP is not even, but should be separated into several stages. This article proposes a new stage - wise model linear error model based on the research on the relationship between China＇s GDP, income and living expenditure in the past 25 years. Meantime, this article gives some estimation methods for the parameters in the model.