GOES-9云图资料在热带气旋路径相似预报中的应用

Application of GOES-9 Satellite Data to Typhoon Movement Similarity Prediction

利用1996～1999四年的GMS-5红外云图资料、NCEP资料和<台风年鉴>给出的热带气旋资料,以及GOES-9红外云图资料,使用逐步相似法对2004年热带气旋进行了路径预报试验.结果表明,GOES-9资料与GMS-5资料可以融合使用,用云图灰度场结合高度场作相似预报的方法可以实现热带气旋移动路径的定量预报,表现了较好的准确性,具有良好应用前景.

Based on GMS-5 infrared satellite images from 1996 to 1999, NECP data, the actual typhoon data from Typhoon Annual and GOES-9 infrared satellite images, an experiment was made on quantificational forecasting of the typhoon motion by stepwise analogy. The result experiment indicates that GOES-9 data is compatible with GMS-5 data and it can quantificationally forecast the typhoon motion by the method of analog forecasting with grey field and geopotential height field. The analog method does well in typhoon track forecasting, and therefore it would have a well application perspective.