软件项目风险评估模型的建立

Risk Assessment Model of Software Project

在软件生存周期早期或新型项目的研发过程中,项目信息往往很少或不完整,风险多由专家依据经验进行评估。但专家的主观评估,不仅存在评估语言的模糊性,也存在专家自身的偏好等问题,这些均给风险的客观度量带来了很大的困难。为此,提出一种新的评估模型,融合模糊理论、风险权重和专家信任度等概念,对软件项目中的风险进行评估,除计算出通常用于衡量风险程度的风险当量以外,还度量出多种风险对某种风险后果的组合影响,以及单个风险对整体后果的综合影响,使评估者从宏观和微观上充分度量出项目中的风险危害。最后,以吉林大学农机实验室研制的通用型精密排种器仿真系统为例,验证模型的正确性和适用性。

During the early phases of the software life cycle or in the research and development process of newtype projects, only little or incomplete project information is available, and risk is always being estimated by experts according to experience, but there exists problems such as language fuzzy and expert prejudice, which make it more difficult to measure risk objectively. This paper proposed a new kind of assessment model, which merges such concepts as fuzzy theory, risk weight and experts＇ trust, etc. , and evaluates risks in software project, besides the risk exposure which is always being used to judge the degree of risks, it also measures the combined influence of a certain risk consequence brought by varied risk factors, and the comprehensive influence on the whole consequence by individual risk, which make it convenient for assessors to measure risk disasters adequately both from macroscopic and microcosmic. Finally, the paper takes the emulation of general precision seed metering devices developed by agricultural machinery lab in Jilin University for example to verify exactness and suitability of the model.