动态盈亏平衡分析

Dynamic Break - Even Analysis

盈亏平衡分析可以对项目的风险情况及项目对各个因素不确定性的承受能力进行科学地判断,为投资决策提供依据。传统盈亏平衡分析以盈利为零作为盈亏平衡点,没有考虑资金的时间价值,是一种静态分析,盈利为零的盈亏平衡实际上意味着项目已经损失了基准收益水平的收益,项目存在着潜在的亏损。把资金的时间价值纳入到盈亏平衡分析中,将项目盈亏平衡状态定义为净现值等于零的状态,便能将资金的时间价值考虑在盈亏平衡分析内,变静态盈亏平衡分析为动态盈亏平衡分析。由于净现值的经济实质是项目在整个经济计算期内可以获得的、超过基准收益水平的、以现值表示的超额净收益,所以,净现值等于零意味着项目刚好获得了基准收益水平的收益,实现了资金的基本水平的保值和真正意义的“盈亏平衡”。动态盈亏平衡分析不仅考虑了资金的时间价值,而且可以根据企业所要求的不同的基准收益率确定不同的盈亏平衡点,使企业的投资决策和经营决策更全面、更准确,从而提高项目投资决策的科学性和可靠性。

Break - even analysis can provide a scientific judgment according to the risk condition of project and endurance capability of uncertain factors, and gives the evidence for the investment decision. The traditional break- even analysis takes the condition that the earning is zero as the break - even point. It does not take the time value of money into consideration. Therefore, it is a static analysis. Actually when the break- even point is on the point that the earning is zero, it means that the project has already lost the income on the fiducial level and has the potential loss. If the time value of money is taken into the break - even analysis and the break -even point of the project is ,set on the point that the net present value （NPV） is zero, it will turn the static analysis into the dynamic one for considering the time value of money in the break- even analysis. Because the economic essentials of NPV is the extra net profit of the project which can be obtained during the whole economic calculating period, exceeds the income on fiducial level and be presented in the form of NPV, that the NPV is zero means that the project just gains the income on fiducial level and realizes that the money on the fiducial level keeps its value and break - even in the real sense. The dynamic break - even analysis not only considers the time value of money, but also sets different break- even points according to different fiducial profitability required by the enterprises It makes the investment decision and management decision of the enterprises more comprehensive and accurate. Therefore, it enhances the objectivity and reliability of the investment decision of the project.