币值调整的宏观经济环境探析——2005年的中国和1985年的日本是否具有可比性?

Does China's Macroeconomy in 2005 Bear Resem-blances with Japan's in 1985?

2005年7月,人民币汇率形成机制改革方案出台,人民币在从固定汇率制向管理浮动汇率制的转变中迈出了重要一步。以此为背景,本文深入比较了我国与20年前境况似乎与我国目前相似的日本之间在宏观经济环境上的差异,指出在升值的外贸压力成因、资本流动性、产融结构及宏观经济态势和宏观经济政策着眼点等四方面两国都存在本质差异,因此20年前日本在“广场协议”后的经济泡沫化分析不适用于我国。文章最后简要探讨了化解本币升值带来的负面效应的若干政策思路。

The exchange rate regime of Renminbi was shifted finally in July 2005, and a managed flexible exchange rate regime substituted the old fixed one. The author gave a thorough eomparison of various maeroeeonomy between China of 2005 and Japan of 1985, because of the seemingly resemblance between the two countries, though in different decades, and pointed out that there were vital differences between them on the following 4 aspects： the causes of appreciation pressure from U.S., capital movement controls, financial systems and focus of macroeconomic policies. Thanks to such diiterences, Japan＇s frustrated experiences after Plaza Accord will hardly be repeated in China, even in case of a further appreciation of Renminbi. In the end, the author gave some policy advices to reduce the negative effect of Renminbi＇ s appreciation.