中国非加速通货膨胀失业率研究

Analysis of China's NAIRU

本文主要研究1978～2004年间的我国非加速通胀率.研究发现中国城镇登记失业率与城镇居民消费物价指数间存在并不显著的菲利普斯曲线.协整检验表明失业率与通胀率具有协整关系.传统计量方法表明我国的NAIRU在3.4%左右.同时对TV-NAIRU序列的HP滤波检验与Gordon模型分析表明我国NAIRU具有相同的变化趋势,这种趋势得到人口特征与劳动生产率角度的解释.此外,两种模型的结果均表明目前我国实际失业率低于NAIRU,经济形势存在通胀的压力.

The purpose of this article is to analyze Chinag NAIRU. We find that there exist Phillips Curve, but the unemployment rate and the inflation rate have Cointegration relation. The result of traditional model is that NAIRU is about 3.4%, but the advanced models have the result of variable NAIRU, and the change of NAIRU has the trend of increasing recently.