人民币升值:边界约束、目标与策略

The RMB Appreciation:Its Boundary Restraints,Targets and Tactics

经济政策学认为,任何一种政策工具的变动都应当遵循政策规律,汇率的变动同样如此。一方面,人民币汇率的调整受其边界条件———购买力平价的约束,今后的客观趋势是升值;另一方面,由中国未来经济目标———充分就业和经济增长等所决定,人民币则应当贬值。但是,由于我国的汇率政策传导机制已经中断,人民币不宜大幅贬值,更不宜大幅升值。在上述背景下,根据丁伯根汇率政策模型可知,人民币汇率变动的基本策略应是小幅无规则升值,这样既能实现中国多元经济目标,又能抵御国际投机资本对经济的冲击。

According to policy economics,just as the change of any policy instrument should be in conformity with the law of policy,so does the exchange rate movement.On the one hand,adjustments of the RMB exchange rate are estricted its boundary condition,that is,purchasing power parity,so its objective tendency to come is appreciation.On the other hand,RMB should be depreciated since China's future economic targets are determined sufficient employmen t and excited consumption.However,a great appreciation of RMB,as well as its considerable depreciation,is inadvisable.Under such a context the tactful way of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation should be an irregular small appreciation in accordance with J.Tinbergen's model on exchange rate policy,so that China's economic multi-targets can be achieved and the impact of international speculative capitals on China's economy can be resisted.