区域滑坡空间预测方法研究及结果分析

STUDY ON SPATIAL PREDICTION METHOD FOR REGIONAL LANDSLIDES AND RESULTS ANALYSIS

区域滑坡空间预测是通过分析滑坡在区域空间分布的丛集性及规律性,圈定出滑坡相对危险性区域。通过MAPGIS软件平台及其二次开发的滑坡灾害分析系统,采用半定量和定量两种方法对浙江省永嘉县区域滑坡进行了预测。半定量方法采用反映历史滑坡强度的袭扰系数和滑坡易发程度指数来评价,编制了危险性预测分区图;定量化方法采用信息量模型来评价,采用规则网格作为预测单元,运用该模型对永嘉县区域滑坡进行了空间定量预测,并依信息量法的结果编制了该区的危险性划决预测分区图,为政府部门进行土地规策、避免在滑坡易发区进行大规模土地开发和工程建设提供了科学依据。同时通过两种方法的预测结果,对比分析了滑坡的形成和各影响因素的关系,为滑坡的有效防治提供了参考。

The aim of spatial prediction for regional landslides, mainly by analyzing the rule of historical landslides distribution, is to point out the regions that are relatively dangerous. On the basis of MAPGIS software and its customizing, two methods, semi-quanttafive and quantitative one, are adopted to forecast regional landslides in Yongjia County of Zhejiang Province. In semi-quantitative method, the harassing coefficient reflecting the intensity of historic landslides and the susceptible index are used to evaluate regional landslides; and hazard zoning map is obtained. In the quantitative method, information value model and method of regular grid are adopted to predict regional landslides. Then, the hazard zoning map is compiled by the results of the information value, which provides scientific references for decision-making about land planning and buildings construction for local government. At the same time, by the results of two methods, the relationships between landslide formation and influential factors are analyzed so as to make landslides prevention feasible.