回归分析法在年用电量预测中的应用

Application of regression analysis on year power load forecast

针对年用电量的预测,研究了回归分析法中的一元线性回归模型．该模型充分考虑了年用电量与时间的关系, 以某地区为例,求出该地区1990年至2000年的用电量回归方程,再用该回归方程求得的年用电量与实际值加以比较,误差满足实际要求且方法简单易行,证明了一元线性回归可以有效的应用于年用电量预测．

Aiming at the year power load forecast, studies the one variable linear regression model. This model considers fully the relation between year power load with time. Taking some area as example, gets the regression equation of year power load from 1990 to 2000, by it calculates the quantity of year power load, compares the quantity got by calcalation with the actual quantity, finds that error satifies the actual need. This method is simple and feasible. Results prove that one variable linear regression can forecast effectively the year power load.