DVD在线租赁预测模型

Forecast model of DVD on-line tenancy

对自由竞争环境下的DVD租赁服务依据市场调查(或订单)进行DVD购买量预测问题进行了模型研究。首先对单周期情形以DVD购买总量最小为目标,在合理的假设下,考虑到DVD租赁比例的要求,巧妙性地利用两个0-1变量来表示会员在一个月的DVD租赁次数,将非线性约束转化为线性约束,并将模型推广到三个月内。并对这些模型利用lingo软件求得5种DVD购买量最优解。最后将模型推广到多周期问题的预测数学模型。

In this paper, the forecast problem of DVD purchasing number has been studied with mathematics model in free-competition society circumstance by market research or order form, First for single cycle, the aim is the minimum of purchasing gross. By reasonable supposition, considering the request of DVD tenancy proportion, non-linear restrict condition is translated into linear restrict condition by using skillfully two 0-1 variables which express member＇s DVD tenancy time in a month. This model is applied in three months. These models are solved by lingo software. Finally, the model is applied to multi-cycle forecast model.