天津市经济增长与环境污染水平关系

Econometric analysis of the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation of Tianjin

摘要：以经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型——环境库兹涅茨曲线为理论基础，分析天津市经济增长与环境污染之间的关系，其环境库兹涅茨曲线与传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线形态不同，出现波动性特征，呈“U型+倒U型”。其中第一阶段为1992年前，工业结构以轻工业为主，随着工业废水治理力度的提高，污染恶化趋势有所遏制，1992-1993年为“U”型环境库兹涅茨曲线的低谷；第二阶段为1992年-1998年，工业结构以重工业为主，固体废弃物与气体污染程度逐渐增加，环境污染水平有所提高，1997-1998年出现“倒U”型曲线的高峰；第三阶段为1998年后，随着综合治理措施的不断加强，城市环境质量总体处于好转态势，曲线开始出现下降趋势。分析表明，引起上述变化的原因与产业结构的变化、环境政策取向、环境保护投资力度等因素有明显关系。

Tianjin is situated in the northeastern part of the North China Plain, with the Yanshan Mountains on the north and Bohai Sea on the east. It is the largest opening coastal city of North China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region. Since 1978, the Tianjin＇s economy has grown substantially. In the 24 years from 1978 to 2003, China＇s economy grew at an annual rate of 10. 6%. With the rapid development of economy, the ecological environment bears great stress. In recent years, there has been contradiction between economic growth and environmental protection, although the policies of environmental protection have been adopted. Guided by the principle of sustainable development and based on the theories and methods of economic-environment, the author analyzed the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration of Tianjin through EKCs. From the examination of the EKC for Tianjin, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation presents a U ＋ inverted-U pattern, which is different from traditional EKC. The results show that the curve conforms to the three periods＂ function, including before 1992, from 1992 to 1998 and after 1998. The curve descended from 1985 to 1992, and the environmental deterioration trend had been held back through improving environmental protection realization and strengthening waste treatment capacities. But from 1992 to 1998, as for industrialization of Tianjin, the industrial structure took heavy industry in lead, resulting in more serious solid and gas pollution. Therefore, the urban condition became worsened. After 1998, the environmental quality was gradually improved, depending mainly on the adoption of comprehensive treatment measures. From the further examination of the EKC, the relationships between economic growth and waste water, waste gas and waste solids of industries present weak inverted-U, U ＋ inverted-U and weak inverted-U patterns respectively. Based on the research, it is considered that environmental policy, environmental awareness of residents and the spread of environmental technology are the main factors which lead to the environment improvement in Tianjin city.