房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验

A Study on the Relationship Between Housing Pricing and Land Pricing:Basic Model and Evidence from China

本文通过构建一个线形城市的住房市场和土地市场模型,分别就Cournot 空间竞争和规制情形,探讨了房价和地价关系。本文的基本结论是:规制情形下的房价和地价高于无规制情形下的房价和地价;在供大于求时,房价与地价成线性负相关关系;在供小于求时,房价与地价成线性正相关关系;房价与地价Granger 因果关系检验表明,短期内房价和地价相互影响,长期内地价是房价的Granger 因。因此,要将房价降下来,短期内,一方面应增加土地供给,另一方面应控制房价和地价过快上涨;在长期,主要应抑制地价的过快上涨。

This paper examines the impacts of the site-scale of real estate developers,vacant land ratio and Floor Area Rate on housing pricing,land pricing and the relationship between them.It analyzes two cases of Cournot Competition and regulation respectively by developing a linear city model for housing market and land market The fundamental conclusions are as follows;(i)the housing price is the decreasing function of Floor Area Rate;(ii)housing price and land price are the increasing function of vacant land ratio;(iii)housing price is the increasing function of the site-scale of real estate developers;(iv)housing price and land price under regulations are higher than those without regulations;(v)the correlation between housing price and land price is negative when there exists excessive supply of land;(vi)the correlation between housing price and land price is positive when there exists scarce supply of land;(vii)Granger causality test of the housing price and land price demonstrates that,when there exists scarce supply of land,housing price interacts with the land price in the short run,and land price is the Granger cause of the housing price in the long run.In order to curb the rigid housing price,the following policies are required.Firstly,the government should increase the supply of land including moderating the proper Floor Area Ratio and control housing price and land price in- crease drastically in the short run.Secondly,the government should prevent t land price from increasing sharply in the long run.