“后新经济”时期全球不稳定现象的经济学分析

"Post-New Economy" Instability:A Economics Perspective

美国学者大卫.雷克在比较美英霸权体系差异的基础上得出了这样的结论:在全球政治经济体系中,美国霸权的存在有利于形成和维持稳定的全球自由主义的市场秩序。但是在“新经济“结束之后,全球政治经济并没有出现稳定发展的局面,相反,经济摩擦、政治冲突事件却在“后新经济”时代频频发生。美国“后新经济”时期的经济特征主要表现在美国经济增长周期与劳动生产率周期的差异、外部不均衡所导致的全球经济结构的失衡、纳斯达克市场效应的下降三个方面,这些特征会进一步导致全球经济的不确定性和不稳定性的加剧。

David A Lake used to compare British and American Hegemony and concluded that the Pax Americana played a favorable role in shaping and stabilizing the global free market system. After the New Economy,however,the world politics and economy have not seen a steadily growing pattern,insteadly,economic frictions and political conflicts are not uncommon in the “post-New Economy” era. This article seeks to explore the characteristics of the US economy during the post-New Economy from three angles：the discrepancy between its economic growth cycle and productivity cycle, the in-equilibrium of the world economic structure aroused from its external imbalance,and the weakening of Nasdaq effects. These characteristics would lead to further uncertain and instable global economy.