摘要
由于自然灾害的发生不是地球某单一圈层内部的孤立行为，而是地球系统各圈层（地、水、气、生、冰）的相互作用加上某些天文因素触发的结果，所以灾害预测是一项跨学科的综合手段的研究。文章从能量的聚集、传递、释放等角度探讨了灾害发生的动力学机制及各圈层在其中所起的控制作用，并介绍了我们开展灾害综合预测研究的思路和模型框架。
The disaster occurrence is not an isolated action within single layer of the earth,but the result of comprehensive interaction among all layers of the earth in addition tosome astronomical reasons. So disaster prediction should be the synthetic research whichis related to many different subjects. In this paper, based on the study of assembly, movement and release of the disaster-breed energy, we make some attempts to reveal the mechanism of disaster occurences and the controlling function of every layer of the earth in thedisaster processes. Meanwhile, we have introduced our ideas for comprehensive predictionof disasters and our prediction model.
出处
《地学前缘》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1996年第2期203-211,共9页
Earth Science Frontiers
关键词
自然灾害
综合预报
预报模式
中长期预报
natural disasters, comprehensive prediction, omen, prediction model
