中国国情分析框架:五大资本及动态变化(1980-2003)

An Analytical Framework of China's National Conditions: The Five Capitals and their Dynamic Changes (from 1980 to 2003)

基于现代经济增长理论和世界银行的增长质量分析框架,提出新的基于物质资本、国际资本、人力资本、自然资本和知识资本的国情综合分析框架,界定了五大资本和总资本及计算方法,以此定量计算和分析了中国1980￣2003年五大资本和总资本的动态变化。结果表明:改革开放以来,知识资本、国际资本、人力资本和国际资本的总量快速增长,增速大大高于同期经济增长率;由于五大资本均有不同程度的提高,导致总资本大幅度跃升;国际资本和自然资本对总资本的提升做出最大贡献。五大资本变动揭示中国大发展背后持续增强的多重驱动力,中国进一步的成功发展,需要继续实施加速积累和有效利用各类资本的综合战略。

Based on the modern economic growth theory and on the framework of growth qualitative analysis made by the World Bank, we have made a new comprehensive analytical outline- founded on material, international, human, natural and knowledge capital- for China's national conditions, and defined the above-mentioned five major capitals, the aggregate capital and the calculating methods thereof, thereby qualitatively calculating and analyzing the dynamic changes from 1980 to 2003 in China's five capitals and aggregate capital. Our study indicates that, since the reform and opening to the outside world, China's knowledge capital, international capital, human capital and international capital aggregate have developed far more speedily than the economic growth rate at the same period; that the growth, at various degrees, of the five capitals has resulted in the escalation of total capital by a great margin; and that the international and natural capital have contributed most to the increase of aggregate capital. The changes in the five major capitals have demonstrated the sustained increased multiple motive forces buttressing China's rapid economic growth; to further develop and successfully, China needs to continue to carry out the comprehensive strategy of acceleratively accumulating and using all kinds of capitals.