中国出口贸易可持续发展水平实证研究——基于1985-2003年的时间序列数据分析

Empirical Research on the Export Sustainable Development Level in China——Based on the Analysis of Time Series Data from 1985 to 2003

本文尝试从出口贸易的社会经济效益和生态效益角度创建测度出口沙中⒄顾降姆植闫兰壑副晏逑并利用灰色关联分析方法建立出口贸易可持续发展水平时序评价模型,最后基于中国1985～2003年的时间序列数据进行实证研究.

This paper tries to establish the evaluation indexes system of export sustainable development level from the perspective of social economic benefits and ecological benefits, then utilizes the grey correlated method to set up the time sequence evaluation model of export sustainable development level , and finally make empirical research on China based on the time series data from 1985 to 2003. The result shows that in China the whole level of export social economic benefits had obviously improved from 1985 to 2003, but this improvement mainly came from the export scale enlargement and at the cost of the worsen of export ecological benefits level in most years . On the whole, the comprehensive level of export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise in slight twists from 1985 to 2003.