农地承包经营权市场流转与行政性调整:理论与实证分析——基于农户层面和江西省实证研究

Farmland Rental Markets Circulation and Land Redistribution: Theoretic and Empirical Analysis

目前,学术界对我国农地市场流转率偏低的原因,以及农地行政性调整是否阻碍了市场流转尚未达成一致观点。本文提出假说认为,农地供求状况主要取决于农户对非农收益期望值的预期;市场发育、交易量的大小主要取决于农户之间非农收益期望值的预期差异;在开放与二元经济条件下,市场流转对行政性调整具有某种替代性。并通过构建农地供求理论决策模型,运用统计和经验数据对上述假说进行了验证。

This article proposes the hypotheses that the supply and demand of farmland are determined mostly by the expectation of non- agricultural income; the market scale is mainly determined by the expectation of non- agricultural income difference between peasants. Under any open binary economical situation, farmland market circulation rate holds certain substitution effect on land redistribution. The article also constructs a decision model of farmland supply and demand. On the base of experimental data, it validates the above proposed hypotheses.