汇率对出口价格传递率的经验研究:以1971～2003年的日本为例

Pass Through of Exchange Rate to Export Price: A Case Study of Japan from 1971 to 2003

本文研究的是日本进入浮动汇率以来日元汇率对出口价格的传递率及其特征。通过建立汇率的出口价格传递率模型进行经验分析得到以下结论:日本进入浮动汇率的33年来,日元汇率的短期和长期出口价格传递率分别为-0.4956和-0.6583,日元汇率升值幅度越大,其出口价格传递率越高;日元汇率对出口价格的短期传递率呈现下降趋势;20世纪80年代中期以后,日本国内批发物价对出口价格没有明显的影响。

This paper focuse on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate of Yen on Japan’s export pricing. We have drawn the following conclusions from our empirical analysis. First, during the thirty-three years since Japan adopted floating exchange rate system, the short term and long term pass-through rate of Japanese Yen on export pricing are 0.4956 and 0.6583 respectively, and the more Yen appreciates, the higher is the pass-through rate; Second, Yen has shown downward trend on the short term pass-through rate on export pricing; Third, after the middle 1980s, domestic wholesale pricing has no obvious impact on the export pricing in Japan.