历史视野中的美国经济“双赤字”问题

"Financial Deficits and Trade Deficits" of American Economy in the View of History

多年来，美国经济发展中的一个重要特征是存在着高额的财政赤字和经常项目赤字。双高赤字起自上世 纪80年代里根政府时期，可以说是“里根经济学”为取得成功所付出的代价。90年代的克林顿政府所采取的削减 联邦财政赤字为主要内容的宏观经济政策获得了成功，而美国经济的持续繁荣则继续导致了美国贸易赤字的增 长。小布什政府上台次年重新出现财政赤字，其后双赤字不断攀升，创下了历史最高记录。布什政府推行的减税 计划造成政府税收下降和9． 11事件以后美国政府开支的大幅度增加是联邦财政重现赤字的主要原因；美国贸易 赤字居高难下并不断增加，从根本上说则是美国经济中消费和支出远远大于其产出的结果。双赤字对美国经济有 利有弊，但归根到底弊大于利，同时也给世界经济增长蒙上了阴影，带来了诸多不确定因素。美国的双高赤字形势 虽然可能会有所改观，但作为一种总体的状况恐会长期存在下去。

High financial deficits and current account deficits characterize the development of American economy for many years. The double high deficits emerged during the Reagan administration in 1980＇s and were viewed as the price of the success of Reaganomics. While the Clinton administration＇s macro- economical policy whose main content was to cut down federal financial deficits was effective in 1990＇s, the continuous prosperity of American economy continued to lead to the growth of American trade deficits. The financial deficits emerged again and then the double deficits kept going up and set a historical highest record during the second year when the Bush administration came to power. The main reasons why federal financial deficits reappeared were that the decrease of government tax revenue brought by the tax reduction plan of Bush administration and the great increase of administrative expenditure since Sept. 11 attack. The height and unceasing increase of American trade deficits resulted radically from the consumption and payment in American economy exceeding production by far. The fact of American double high deficits, although potentially improved a little, can still exist by and large for a long time.