基于灰色马尔可夫模型的水上交通事故预测

Forecasting of maritime accidents by grey-Markov model

在灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的基础上,运用马尔可夫模型对预测结果进行优化,并将由此建立的灰色马尔可夫模型运用于1979～1998年全国水上交通事故数据来预测1999年事故量.结果表明,这种模型的预测精度高达89%,明显优于单独使用GM(1,1)模型的预测结果.

Based on the forecasting model of grey GM（1,1）, the article applies the model of Markov to opti- mize the result, and applies the grey-Markov model created thereby to forecasting maritime accidents. At the end, using the national maritime accidents data of the years 1979-1998 the amount of accidents in 1999 is forecast. The result shows that the precision of the model has reached to 89 96, which is superior to the model of GM（1,1） greatly.