网络概率模型的建立与特征量概率公式的推证

The Establishment of Net Probable a Model and the Proof of Probable Formulac for the Characteristic Capacity

基于网络系统状态的设置,建立起该系统网络可靠性概率模型.按再生过程给出可靠性特征量tw的初步估计式,通过定理进一步推证出tw的概率估计与极限分布公式.并在两种条件下论证故障概率θ(1θ和θ2)的估计公式,又以两种极限监理情况为例分别对θ进行双侧估计,给出该估计的上下限.同时在两种条件下分别提出可靠性特征量twk(tw′k,t″wk)概率估计的极限定理.最后评价了网络系统概率估算的主要结果.

In view of a state＇s establishment for net system, this paper built a probable model of net reliability for this system. Then have given initial estimative formulac of the characteristic capacity tw of reliability according to revivable process, and also further reckoned probable estimative formulac of tw and limitable distributive formulac make theorems. And then estimative formulac of the stoppage＇ss probability θ（θ1 and θ2） are proven under two kinds of conditions, also Separately took estimation of θ from both of sides with two limitatiional supervisory circumstances. It＇s upper limit and lower limit are given. At the same time raised limitable theorems of the probable estimation of reliability＇s characteristic capacity twk（t′wk,t″wk） Separately under two kinds of conditions. Finally, in this paper appraised probable estimative major relust of net system.