储蓄过剩时代的宏观政策选择

Savings Overplus Era's Macro Policy Choice

中国经济增长已从供给约束型转化为需求约束型,私人部门消费不足和投资不足导致的储蓄过剩成为其宏观经济运行的基本特征。储蓄过剩降低了货币的流动性,削弱了货币政策对产出的影响,使经济增长更加依赖财政赤字和进出口贸易,也使贸易政策和财政政策面临两难选择。为维持总量平衡,保持适度的经济增长,政府应充分发挥宏观调控的作用。具体而言,运用财政政策改善供给、增加消费;运用货币政策实现货币稳定和金融稳定,促进储蓄向投资的转化。

Economic growth of our country has changed from resource-limited style to demand-limited style.Savings surplus due to shortage of private consumption and investment has become the main character of macro-economic running.Savings surplus has slowed down the liquidity of money and decreased the monetary policy's influence on output,which makes economic growth depend more on fiscal deficit and trade of export and import.It also makes trade policy and fiscal policy face dilemma.In order to keep the overall balance and appropriate economic growth,the government should make good use of macro-adjustment: implementing the fiscal policy to perfect the supply and increase the consumption;implementing the monetary policy to stabilize the money and finance,as well as strengthening the transformation from savings to investment.