生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望

Trends and prospects for research on disaster mitigation in lifeline engineering system

全面系统地总结了国内外生命线工程系统减灾研究的内容、特点和现状,指出了目前研究方面的缺陷,如缺少实用的分析方法、研究内容不全面或不深入等问题.从科研和实际工程系统两方面出发,归纳出生命线工程系统防灾减灾研究的发展趋势.即生命线工程系统未来的发展方向应是多学科的相互靠近和融合,建立生命线工程系统的场地危险性评估方法、重大生命线工程破坏机理的分析方法、工程系统的设防标准、性态设计与优化分析方法、地震预警与应急和恢复策略、地震功能失效分析方法、地震灾害损失估计与控制方法,研制防震减灾智能决策信息系统,开发符合实际城市生命线工程系统特征、可以在线运行或实时监测的城市生命线工程系统模拟软件等,从而为直接指导城市生命线工程系统规划、建设,防灾减灾,控制与管理工作提供理论依据.

The research content, research characteristics and existing research state of earthquake- resistance and disaster mitigation of lifeline engineering at home and abroad are summarized systematically. It is pointed out that there are many defects in development and research aspects. For example, the practical analysis methods are defective, and the research content is not overall and deep. The directions, subjects and content of lifeline engineering research in the future are also put forward and proposed on the basis of scientific research and practical engineering. The development trends of lifeline engineering should be the closing and mixing of multi-subjects, the seismic risk analysis methods of lifeline engineering, the major lifeline structures damage mechanism analysis methods, the seismic design criterion, performance design and optimum design of engineering system, the earthquake disaster forecast, emergency and recover measures, the seismic function failure analysis methods of lifeline engineering system, the estimation and control methods of earthquake disasters and losses, the studies of disaster mitigation intelligence decision system and the development of on-time simulation software satisfying lifeline engineering characteristics. The research results can directly give the services to the programme, construction, earthquake-resistance and disaster mitigation, control and management of urban lifeline engineering system.