捕获-再捕获方法分析云南西盟县疟疾漏报程度

Analysis of missing reported malaria infections in Ximeng County,Yunnan Province by using capture-recapture method.

目的了解西盟县的疟疾发病实情和漏报程度。方法采用回顾性调查方法,统计2002年疟疾报告疫情、血检情况、疟疾治疗及村民疟史等。以捕获-再捕获方法估计疟疾实际发病和漏报率。结果西盟县疟疾发病率为50·18/万,7个乡均有病例分布,被调查3个乡的疟疾发病率分别为136·84/万、46·34/万和11·24/万,所调查的20个自然村在2002年共报告17例疟疾,采用发热病人血检、医生疟疾治疗处方、疟史3种再捕获方法核实疫情,估算得西盟县的3种疟疾疫情漏报率分别是39·29%、83·5%和94·93%。结论西盟县的疟疾漏报现象比较普遍。

Objective To understand the actual status of malaria infection and missing reported malaria cases in Ximeng County, Yunan Province. Methods Data concerning malaria infection, blood examination, treatment ,etc. in 2002 in Ximeng County were retrospective analyzed. The actual infectious status of malaria and missing reported malaria cases were estimated by using capture - recapture methods. Results The incidence of malaria infection in Ximeng County was 50.18/10 000 and malaria cases were distributed in all the seven townships. The incidence in the three townships surveys were 136.84/10 000, 46.34/10 000 and 11.24/10 000, respectively. The rate of missing reported malaria cases during the work of blood examination, preparing prescription and malaria history record in Ximeng County was estimated to be 39.29 %, 83.5 % and 94.93 %, respectively. Conclusion The situation of missing reported malaria cases is serious and common in Ximeng County.