结构可靠度时变预测及灰色关联度在结构稳定分析中的应用

Application of Structural Reliability Time-Varying Prediction and Grey Correlation Degree in Structural Stability Analysis

影响工程结构可靠度的因素繁多,且结构抗力和作用荷载随时间而变。用回归分析方法或某种特定的分布函数难以准确、真实地计算结构失效概率并确定结构可靠度的主要影响因素。灰色预测,可对结构可靠度进行时变预测,可用于预报结构可靠度风险、优化结构设计及灾害预测方面。通过灰色关联分析计算结构可靠度指标与荷载之间的相关度,准确找出影响结构可靠度的主要因素和结构最不利荷载组合,为安全监测提供科学依据,并举一实例说明其应用。

There are a lot of factors affecting the structural reliability of engineering. The supporting forces of structure and acting loads vary with time and are affected by a lot of factors of uncertainty and unknown. Therefore, it is difficult to calculate effect-losing probability accurately and to find the primary factors of structural reliability with routine regressive analysis or some specific distributing functions. The paper employed grey-forecast method to implement the time-varying predicition of engineering for analyzing struction reliability. At the same time, the primary factors and the worst load combimation affecting structural reliability of engineering could be found by the method. Therefore, the method is very useful to forecast structural reliability venture, destructive disaster, to optimize the structure design and to avoid the worst load combination. At last, the application of this method was represented through an engineering illustration.