交通事故预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型

Gray model GM(1,1)for forecast of traffic accidenfs

通过对道路交通事故分析、预测方法的研究,指出了其缺陷.在分析道路交通事故的灰色性和中国道路交通安全数据库薄弱性的基础上,给出了灰色GM(1,1)模型,并对道路交通事故的死亡人数、交通事故数进行了预测,其结果是可信的.

Studying the road traffic accident analysis and forecast methods, the paper points out the disfigurements. Based on the analysis of the gray features of road traffic accidents and the weakness of domestic traffic accident database, the GM（1,1） model is set up according to gray forecasting theory, then the death toll and traffic accident volume are forecasted by this model. The result is credible. The paper shows that the way is feasible, practical and predominant.