基于引力模型的双边贸易流量计量研究——对包含中国数据样本的适用性检验

An Econometric Research on Bilateral Trade Flows among China and Its Trade Partners Based on an Empirical Study of Gravity Model

引力模型是20世纪60年代以来对双边贸易流量的计量研究领域所取得的重要成果。几乎所有的国外研究都将中国视为“前中央计划经济国家”而将其排除在样本的考虑之外。本文通过基本变量的设定构造了一个贸易引力模型,应用实际贸易数据验证了其对包含中国数据在内的样本的适用性,评价了其对中国与主要贸易伙伴之间真实贸易状况的解释力。

As an important result of econometric study on bilateral trade flows since 1960s, Gravity model has seldom been used in the research on samples including data from China. Employing an empirical gravity model, this paper attempts to explore the volume and direction of China and other 17 countries＇ trade, aiming to examine whether and to what extent bilateral trade among all the 18 countries can be explained by the model. The results reveal a positive support for the author＇s estimation.