我国货币政策对外贸易传导机制分析

Analysis on China's Monetary Foreign Trade Transmission Mechanism

经济条件的变化使得货币政策通过对外贸易传导的作用机制不断加强。通过单位根检验和Granger因果检验,对1998年1月-2005年2月的相关经济变量进行了实证分析,验证了这个结论,并进一步指出:样本时间段内,狭义货币供应量M1是利率变动的绝对原因,而利率的波动也能有效地引起汇率的变化;虽然目前汇率对净出口的调节作用不大,但随着我国汇率制度改革的推进,其影响作用必定会显著增强;净出口是总产出变动的绝对原因,但其作用效果的显现时滞相对较长。

The function of monetary foreign trade transmission mechanism has been strengthened constantly along with the change of economic conditions in our country. Through the empirical research on relative variables from January 1998 to February 2005 with unit root test and Granger causality test, this paper verified the conclusion, and finally indicated that in the slot of samples, narrow money supply M1 is the absolute reason of the shocks of interest rate, and interest rate also can affect the exchange rate efficiently, although exchange rate can not regulate net export effectively on the stage, its effect must be far more notable with the advance of China＇s exchange rate reform. In addition, net export can act on aggregate output absolutely, but the time lag is relatively longer.