资产价格泡沫与转型期最优货币政策研究:一个房地产市场案例

The Study of Asset Price Bubble and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Case Study of Real Estate Market

资产价格与货币政策关系的持久争论是一个理论界的长期问题。本文对江西省上饶市房地产发展和房地产金融运行进行案例研究,结论如下:第一,资产价格泡沫在宏观价格稳定和微观金融风险两个角度影响货币运行,因而资产价格应该且可以成为货币政策的钉住目标;第二,在政策操作规则上,反周期的总量性政策与结构性的信贷政策应并举,在有效实施总量调控以稳定货币供给的同时,要保证对特定子市场的差别化调节;第三,考虑到中国经济转型期居民投资偏好的特殊性,针对资产价格的货币调控必须结合微观面的面向借款人的激励、多元化房地产金融体系建设、风险防范的制度建设等措施渐进推进。在长期,我国货币当局的根本任务之一是确立面向资产价格泡沫管理的最优货币政策框架。

How should monetary policy respond to asset price is a long lasting issue. This paper studies the case of real estate and real estate finance in Shangrao, Jiangxi to show the following conclusions. Firstly, real estate market affects price stability and financial risk, thus asset price may be a target of monetary policy; Secondly, aggregate and structural policies should be coordinated; and finally, incentives for household, a multi- layer real estate financial market and legislation are institutional supports.