区域生态安全评价时间序列动态分析——以广东省为例

Study on Regional Ecological Security Assessment in Guangdong Province:Time Series Analysis

根据压力-状态-响应模型构建一个4层次的区域生态安全水平度量指标体系和计算方法,对广东省 1990-2003年时间序列的生态安全进行评估和动态分析。结果表明,广东省生态安全综合指数从1990年的0．156 增至2003年的0．397,生态安全整体水平得到提高。但区域生态压力在不断加大(其指数从1990年的0．106减至 2003年的0．059),生态安全总体水平仍处于临界安全状态(理想安全综合指数为1),应采取科学合理的生态安全 对策,以实现区域可持续发展。

With the accelerating of global eco- environment change,ecological security beaxnes a research focus in the world.On the basis of Pressure- State- Response Model, a 4 - layer assessment indicator system of regional ecological security was carried out. Then,taking Guangdong Province （in South China） as a case study the authors assessed its ecological security situation from 1990 to 2003. The results show that the ecological security integrated index （ESII） tends to increase continually in 14 years, from 0.156 to 0.397, while its ecological pressure becomes tenser and this region is still in critical ecological security situation（Compared with perfect ecological security, which ESII is 1）. It is believed that scientific and reasonable measures should be further strengthened,so as to realize the regional sustainable development.