灰色理论在克拉玛依油田操作成本预测中的应用

Application of Grey Theory to Prediction of Oil-Gas Operation Cost of Karamay Oilfield

油气操作成本预测是成本预算与控制的首要环节。油气操作成本的预测一般均采用水平法和相关分析法进行,但结果与实际差距较大,不利于现代企业的成本管理。分析了灰色系统模型及其应用领域。初步认为,油气操作成本影响因素、构成环境与体系非常符合灰色系统应用范围,属于灰色系统问题。在此基础上,引入灰色理论的单序列一阶线性动态模型以及模型精度检验计算方法,并以克拉玛依油田综合单位操作成本为例,进行年度操作成本预测,其结果基本符合克拉玛依油田油气操作成本变化规律。

The prediction of oil-gas operation cost is the first step of cost budget and control. This prediction is normally made by using level method and correlation analysis method, but the results from them have some difference with real situation, which is unfavorable for the cost management of modern enterprises. This paper analyzes the grey system model and application realm, it is preliminarily considered that affecting factor, composing environment and system for oil-gas operation cost accord very much with grey system model and belong to grey system matter. In addition, this paper introduces the single serial one-order linear performance model of grey theory and the calculation method of model precision verification and presents the yearly operation cost prediction by taking composite unit operation cost of Karamay oi]field as an example. The result shows that it basically accords with changing regularity of the oil-gas operation cost of Karamay oilfield.