桂林市极端天气气候事件分析

Analysis on Extreme Weather-climate Events in Guilin

桂林是以'甲天下'的山水美景而闻名的国际旅游城市,极端天气气候事件造成的灾害将给其社会经济的发展带来负面影响.本文采用桂林1951～2004年的资料,统计干旱、暴雨、高温和强对流天气等极端天气气候事件的出现频率、强度并分析其演变趋势.结果显示,近50年来,桂林市极端天气气候事件除暴雨、干旱强度增大外,频率变化呈平稳或减小趋势.

Guilin is an international tourist attraction which is famous for its scenery. Disasters caused by the extreme weather-climate events in this area may negatively impact its socioeconomic development. In this paper, the data recorded in the period of 1951-2004 are used to calculate the frequency and strength of extreme weather-climate events, such as drought, rainstorm, hot wave, strong convective weather and analyze the trend. The results show that the general trend of the change in fre.quency are stable or decrease, except for the increase in the strength of drought and rainstorm in recent 50 years in Guilin.