两村15岁以下儿童甲型肝炎病毒感染的前瞻性研究

Study on the prediction of infection caused by hepatitis A virus among children under 15 years old in two villages

A、B 两村在1984及1985年甲型肝炎流行,而后每年观察流行后1～15岁儿童甲肝易感率变化及新感染率,至第2次流行。探索预测本病流行的易感率指标,分析显性与隐性感染比例。结果认为:1～15岁儿童易感率>50%,若有传染源存在,可能发生甲肝流行,特别是4～6岁儿童易感率>50%,可做为农村预测甲肝可能流行的易感率指标。流行年甲肝显性与隐性感染之比为1:0.9,显性感染多,与感染者年龄较大有关,非流行年上述比例为1:2.3,隐性感染多,与新感染者年龄较小有关。

Observation on the susceptible rate and the new infection rate of hepatitis A virus were carried out an- nually since the end of epidemic of hepatits A in villages A and B during 1984 and 1985,until the occurrence of the next epidemic.The threshold of susceptibility for the infection of hepatitis A was predicted by comparing the ratio of infection rate to latent infection rate.It is showed that an epidemic of hepatitis A will be possible to appear,when the susceptible rate among 1-15 years old children is over 50.0% or if there is a source of infection,especially when the susceptible rate among 4-6 years old children is over 50.0%.This susceptible rate could be used to predict the epi- demic of hepatits A among children of villages.The ratio of infection rate is 1:0.9 during epidemic years,but this ra- tio changed to 1:2.3 during non-epidemic years.