基于出行链的城市客运交通枢纽换乘需求预测模型

Trip chain based passenger transfer demand forecast model in city passenger transportation hubs

城市客运交通枢纽的换乘需求预测具有一定复杂性,还没有一种固定有效的计算模式。本文首先分析了基于出行链的客运枢纽客流构成,然后通过构建一个虚拟三维网络模型来描述多方式交通系统,提出了将方式划分与路径选择联合的客流预测模型,使得客运枢纽多种方式间的两两换乘需求预测简化为求解换乘弧上流量的问题。最后使用TransCAD给出一个算例,结果表明此法具有原理清晰,应用方便的优点。

The forecast of passenger transfer demand in city passenger transportation hubs is very complicated. None effective model has been put forward yet. In the paper, trip chain based passenger flow is analyzed firstly. Then one kind of virtual 3-D transportation network is modeled to describe the multi-mode transportation system. And a combined mode and path selection model is then defined in the network. Thus, passenger transfer demand between two modes in a hub can be forecasted by acquiring the volume on the transfer segment of a path. Using TransCAD software, a case is calculated in the end. Good logic, convenient application in the model is showed by the case.