网络数据包到达速率的混沌特性分析及其短期预测

Chaotic Characteristic Analysis and Short-term Prediction of Network Data Packets Arrival Rates

本文利用关联维法分析了以太网数据包到达速率数据的混沌特性,在此基础上,结合相空间重构技术,利用混沌时间序列的局域一阶预测法对其进行了预测,预测结果表明该混沌预测方法能够对网络数据包到达速率取得很好的预测效果.这为进一步研究网络流量提供了基础,也为网络数据包到达速率具有混沌特性提供了新的依据.

This paper analyzes the chaotic characteristic of Ethernet network data packets amval rates, aria chaotic local first -order prediction method is employed to predict the Ethernet data packets arrival rates based on the phase space reconstruction. The prediction results indicate that this method can acquire good prediction effect. This research provides the base for the further research of network traffic, and provides new reliance about chaotic characteristic of packet arrival rates.