不对称国际经济体系下的人民币汇率问题——一个劳动力平价视角

Analysis of the Problem of Exchange Rate under the Assymetric International Economic System-from the view of Labor Parity

本文试从经济和金融全球化的视角,以劳动力平价为分析基础,分析在不对称国际经济体系中的人民币汇率水平问题。通过对中美劳动力平价以及中国与印度尼西亚、马来西亚和韩国三国的劳动力平价的比较研究,发现对美元而言,人民币1998年之前存在着较严重低估,1998年之后低估程度缩小;对印度尼西亚、马来西亚和韩国三国而言,10年来一直处于竞争性均衡中,在劳动力平价上不存在比较优势。因而,只有在人民币汇率形成机制中考虑东南亚国家货币的影响,才能保证我国商品的国际竞争力。

This paper analyses the problem of exchange rate from the view of labor parity under unequally international system. By comparing the labor parity among China, US, Indonesia, Malaysia and Korea, RMB was substantially undervalued relative to US dollar before 1998, but this tendency was reversed after that. However, RMB has never been undervalued relative to the currencies of the three Eastern Asian countries for the last ten years. Therefore, only when the currencies of Asian countries are revalued against US dollar simultaneously can the competitive abilities of Chinese merchandises be assured in the international market.