摘要
有限小样本条件下推断岩土参数的概率分布类型,在岩土工程可靠性分析是一个热点问题。在现场有限个小样本和存在多个大样本先验分布的条件下,提出了专家信息融合方法,探讨如何综合利用已有的经验资料并结合工程现场的试验数据来确定岩土参数的概率分布。考虑各先验分布的影响因素,通过专家打分方法,确定各先验分布的权重,进而进行整体融合,实现统计意义上概率分布类型的优化。
It is a hotspot to deduce the probabilistic distribution of rock ＆ soil mechanical parameters by a small sample. The expert＇ s information fusion method is presented in this paper. Based on testing data and some groups of prior distribution data （existed in history ） in the same zone, this paper discusses the problem how to estimate the distribution of rock ＆ soil parameters for a small sample in the case of insufficient data. Confirming the weight of every prior distribution by expert＇s marking to the difference between its prior data and testing data, this paper brings about the optimum fitting of probabilistic model of rock ＆ soil parameters.
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
2005年第6期929-931,959,共4页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:50490274)
国家"973"项目(2002CB412703)
关键词
小样本
岩土参数
专家信息融合
概率分布
small sample
parameters of rock and soil
expert＇s information fusion
probabilistic distribution
