塔里木河大西海子水库输水目标预报模型研究

Study on the Discharge Target Forecast Model of Daxihaizi Reservoir of Tarim River Area

通过采用多元线性回归和BP神经网络建立了大西海子水库输水预报两个模型,并用水文实测数据对模型进行验证,结果表明预测模型具有可行性和实用性,为塔里木河流域水资源的合理利用以及水权目标管理提供科学依据。

The paper uses multiple linear regression and BP neural network to establish two forecast models, and gives instances to validate those models. The result indicates that they have feasibility and practicability. The discharge target forecast model of Daxihaizi reservoir provides scientific gist to the reasonable use and water right target management of the water resources of Tarim River Area.