货币政策规则理论的发展回顾

The Development of the Monetary Policy Rule Theory

本文对有关货币政策规则的著名建议及货币政策规则思想的现代发展历程进行了简要的历史回顾。讨论了在不确定性的短期宏观经济模型(即所谓的Poole模型)中规则的作用及中期模型如AS-IS-LM模型中的货币政策规则。我们特别关注所谓的工具规则和目标规则,工具规则以泰勒规则为代表,而通货膨胀目标规则是最流行的目标规则。最后,我们介绍了最优货币政策的理论观点,并将所谓的芝加哥规则放入一个简单的实际货币余额增长模型中进行考察。

This paper presents a literature survey on monetary policy rules. We discuss the general idea of using policy rules instead of discretionary policy and give a brief historic review of famous proposals concerning monetary policy rules. Firstly, we discuss the role of rules in a short-run macroeconomic model with uncertainty, such as the Poole model. Secondly, we discuss monetary policy rules in medium-term models, such as the AS-IS-LM model. We pay special attention to the instrumental rules, with the Taylor rule being the most prominent example, and targeting rules, in which inflation targeting is most popular. Finally, we present theoretical notions on optimal monetary policy in the long run and illustrate the so-called Chicago rule in a simple growth model with real mon ey balances.