贝叶斯检验与库恩范式

Bayesian Test and Kuhn's Paradigm

库恩的范式理论揭示了常规科学和科学革命交替进行的发展模式,但是他对科学检验在其中的作用过于轻视,原因在于他心目中只有假设-演绎检验模式,而没有贝叶斯检验模式。本文应用贝叶斯检验模型重新审视库恩的范式理论,展示其中的逻辑成分或理性成分,进而说明逻辑与信念、理性与非理性在科学革命过程中的张力结构。

Kuhn's theory of paradigm reveals the way of development in which the normal science and the scientific revolution appear alternately.However,Kuhn underestimated the role of scientific test in that way.Because,in his eyes,there is only the hypothetico-deductive schema of test but not the Bayesian one.In this paper,I'll apply the Bayesian schema of test to reexamine Kuhn's theory of paradigm and show the logical or rational components in it,then proceed to expose the structure of tension between logic and belief,rationality and irrationality within the scientific revolution.