摘要
本文将灰色系统理论应用于城市公交客运量预测,建立了公交客运量的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并通过残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验等方法验证模型的正确性。该方法预测精度高、计算速度快、使用方便,特别适用于随机性强的城市公交线网日客流预测,并已在安庆市公共交通规划中得到应用,证明是较为实用的方法。
A grey predicting model GM (1, 1) using grey system theory was created to predict the passenger volume of urban public transit. Its correctness has been tested by some traditional methods such as residue checking, correlativitycheckingand after-test residue checking. Application of this method in the public transit planning of Anqing city has indicated that the predicting model is a practical way with high precision and computing speed, especially with high randomness.
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2005年第4期33-37,44,共6页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
关键词
公共交通
客运量
灰色预测
Public transit system, passenger volume, grey forecast model